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Here’s how consumers are expected to approach Black Friday 2011:

Expected Turnout

According to the National Retail Federation, “up to 152 million people plan to shop Black Friday weekend”, encompassing Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. That’s up from 138 million people in 2010. Of that total, about 74 million people “say they will definitely hit the stores” while another 77 million “are waiting to see if the bargains are worth braving the cold and the crowds.”

According to NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay:

“We fully expect to see excited shoppers as early as midnight at stores around the country, as many holiday shoppers would rather stay up all night to take advantage of retailers’ Black Friday deals rather than set their alarm to wake up the next morning.”

Expected Spending

(source)

In a recent article ABC projected overall holiday spending to reach $465.6 billion, up 2.8% from 2010. Last year, Black Friday spending hit a record high of $10.69 billion, per a CBS report. If we assume that Black Friday spending rises by the same 2.8% as overall holiday spending in 2011, that would put projected Black Friday spending at $10.97 billion this year.

Last year’s average spending totals also shed light on what might be reasonable to expect this year. The Sacramento Bee reminds us that “in 2010, over 212 million shoppers bought holiday gifts and other items the weekend of Black Friday spending on average $365.34.” Presumably, that average transaction size could increase this year along with overall holiday spending.

How Consumers Are Shopping This Year

(source)

This year, for the first time ever, the NRF studied how shoppers were planning to track the many holiday sales and promotions being offered for Black Friday weekend. The results show in previously unheard-of detail where consumers are looking the most:

“Half (50.5%) will keep up with advertising circulars throughout the holiday season and nearly one-third (31.7%) said they will tune in to watch retailers’ holiday commercials. Additionally, nearly one-quarter (23.1%) will seek out coupon websites like RetailMeNot.com and FatWallet.com, and 32.3 percent will specifically keep track of the email coupons they receive from retailers.”

These findings are especially interesting in light of the increased role that daily-deal sites will be playing this year (more on that below.)

Half-Off Deals At Daily-Deal Sites

(source)

When we think of Black Friday, we typically associate the shopping holiday with big-box retailers like Wal-Mart. But in a recent article, Christian-Science Monitor tells us that “online retail sales are expected to eclipse $50 billion for the first time in the fourth quarter of 2011.” Deal websites like Groupon and LivingSocial are generating an unprecedented amount of this activity. The Washington Post revealed that LivingSocial in particular will be offering half-off deals for:

“companies including Verizon Wireless, Office Max, Electronic Arts, Sketchers, BlueFly and Skype. Other deal partners listed on the company’s Web site include online clothing retailer threadless, decal and poster company Fathead and flower delivery service FTD.”

LivingSocial is also expected to offer 50% off deals from Amazon and Whole Foods. Even if you’ve been skeptical of how worthwhile Black Friday deals have been in the past, it’s tough to beat 50% off from top retailers such as these.

Social Media & Black Friday

(source)

More than any year prior, social media will make its presence felt in Black Friday 2011. Phil Rist, an executive vice-president at BIGresearch was quoted as saying “social media will play a big role in how shoppers follow company sales announcements this holiday season. From Facebook to Twitter and even group buying sites, ‘social’ retailers may be rewarded this season in terms of additional holiday sales.”

Concretely, the survey indicated that 17.3% of consumers will monitor retailers’ Facebook page, with another 11.3% keeping tabs on group-buying sites. Additionally, one in five tablet users (21.3%) will turn to group buying sites, while 31.2% visit their favorite merchant’s Facebook pages.

Early Wake-ups

(jardenberg)

What excites Black Friday fanatics above all is the thought of saving big on popular merchandise. “50% off!”, the billboards promise. “Buy one, get one free!” the newspaper exclaims. However, a lower price doesn’t necessarily make something a great deal. In college economics courses, students learn about opportunity cost: the value of your next-best option. As it turns out, Black Friday involves many opportunity costs, some of which may erase any “deal” you think you’re getting.

One of these costs is early wake-ups. The typical Black Friday sale starts early in the morning – early as in 3 a.m., not 8 a.m.. Is standing outside in the freezing cold at 2 a.m. really worth $20 off a new cell phone? Maybe – but maybe not.

Aggressive Shoppers

(Marianne O’Leary)

Another opportunity cost of Black Friday are the aggressive and often violent shoppers you are competing with. Every year, newspapers are flooded with stories about in-store fighting – usually when sale price items sell out (a common situation.) And it’s pretty easy to see why. The people who show up to Black Friday sales at 3 a.m. are the most hardcore, devoted deal-seekers in the community. They are the people who decided that waking up early, driving all over creation, standing outside for hours in the cold and literally fighting with other customers was worth the deals they were promised.

Thus, we see what went happened in this video (where shoppers dog-piled on top of one another for an Xbox) every single year. You may remember Black Friday 2006, when a frenzy over the PlayStation 3 console caused such a commotion that a local Walmart had to be shut down. Back in 2008, the New York Daily News reported on a Walmart employee being trampled to death by crazed shoppers.

Frustrated Store Employees

(Grant_Robertson)

If you think retail employees are surly all year round, wait until you see them on Black Friday. Consider that you are shopping on what is unquestionably the most stressful, pressurized and chaotic day of the entire commercial year. All day long, employees are faced with demanding customers, forced to break up fights and worked to exhaustion by their managers.

Trying to get a straight answer from these people on Black Friday is a lot like visiting Town Hall on April 15 – in other words, a giant, headache-filled nightmare.

Gas Costs

(dave_mcmt)

Yet another opportunity cost of Black Friday is fuel. True devotees of this shopping holiday don’t visit the local Walmart or Target, stock up on a few calculated purchases and call it a day. No – they will instead wring Black Friday for all it’s worth by visiting every store in town, and perhaps the surrounding towns as well.

Of course, those who genuinely love to shop may see gas as a small price to pay, but it does add up. The more fuel you burn in pursuit of a deal, the less of a deal it becomes. Because of this, a Black Friday spent trekking around the state could be (while perhaps still enjoyable) a complete wash as far as saving money goes.

Sub-par Deals

(dave_mcmt)

Even the deals themselves are not always all they appear to be. On October 26, DealNews.com published a report debunking fifteen popular Black Friday myths. MSN cited it as well, calling Black Friday “highly overrated.” One big reason is that the supposedly unbeatable deals we all hear about do not always add up. According to DealNews:

“These days, more and more Black Friday deals are available online as well as in-store. Couple that with the fact that many Black Friday doorbusters are either matched or beaten later in the season, and you can only conclude that it’s not worth camping out for Black Friday specials. At most stores, being first in line to go in at 5 am only guarantees that you’ll get shoved around as the 500 people behind you are also let in.”

Retailers are also said to “often mix in their everyday prices with their steeper discounts, hoping that a shopper will bite on a high-profit item.”

The Answer: Cyber Monday

(eGuidry)

In many ways, Cyber Monday is the shopping event that actually delivers what Black Friday promises. In addition to good deals, there are few (if any) opportunity costs. Most or all ordering is done online, from the comfort of home, at any time of the day or night that is convenient. Shipping is often free or much less expensive than normal.

Best of all, it’s only two days after Black Friday. Since the Christmas holiday is a full month away anyway, why not skip the madness and shop on Cyber Monday instead? You’ll save more and work less.